Please cite this article as: SONG JJ, LIU YP, WANG WY, YANG J, WEN J, CHEN J, GAO J, SHAO CL, TANG YD. Development and validation of a nomogram predicting one-year mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. J Geriatr Cardiol 2022; 19(12): 960−969. DOI: 10.11909/j.issn.1671-5411.2022.12.003.
Citation: Please cite this article as: SONG JJ, LIU YP, WANG WY, YANG J, WEN J, CHEN J, GAO J, SHAO CL, TANG YD. Development and validation of a nomogram predicting one-year mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. J Geriatr Cardiol 2022; 19(12): 960−969. DOI: 10.11909/j.issn.1671-5411.2022.12.003.

Development and validation of a nomogram predicting one-year mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

  •  OBJECTIVE  To formulate a nomogram to predict the risk of one-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) based on a large-scale real-world Asian cohort.
     METHODS  This study cohort included consecutive patients undergoing PCI in the National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases of China. The endpoint was all-cause mortality. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression and backward stepwise regression were used to select potential risk factors. A nomogram based on the predictors was accordingly constructed to predict one-year mortality. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated. Patients were stratified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the tertile points in the nomogram and compared by the Kaplan-Meier analysis.
     RESULTS  A total of 9603 individuals were included in this study and randomly divided into the derivation cohort (60%) and the validation cohort (40%). Six variables were selected to formulate the nomogram, including age, renal insufficiency, cardiac dysfunction, previous cerebrovascular disease, previous PCI, and TIMI 0–1 before PCI. The area under the curve of this nomogram regarding one-year mortality risks were 0.792 and 0.754 in the derivation cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curve successfully stratified the patients according to three risk groups. This nomogram calibrated well and exhibited satisfactory clinical utility in the decision curve analysis.
     CONCLUSIONS  This study developed and validated a simple-to-use nomogram predicting one-year mortality risk in Asian patients undergoing PCI and could help clinicians make risk-dependent decisions.
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