ISSN 1671-5411 CN 11-5329/R
Qian JIA, Yu–Rong WANG, Ping HE, Xue–Liang HUANG, Wei YAN, Yang MU, Kun–Lun HE, Ya–Ping TIAN. Prediction model of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with acute heart failure based on retrospective study. J Geriatr Cardiol 2017; 14(11): 669-678. doi: 10.11909/j.issn.1671-5411.2017.11.002
Citation: Qian JIA, Yu–Rong WANG, Ping HE, Xue–Liang HUANG, Wei YAN, Yang MU, Kun–Lun HE, Ya–Ping TIAN. Prediction model of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with acute heart failure based on retrospective study. J Geriatr Cardiol 2017; 14(11): 669-678. doi: 10.11909/j.issn.1671-5411.2017.11.002

Prediction model of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with acute heart failure based on retrospective study

doi: 10.11909/j.issn.1671-5411.2017.11.002
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This work was supported by the Ministry Science Foundation of the Chinese People's Liberation Army during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period (grant numbers BWS12J048).

  • Received Date: 2016-12-17
  • Rev Recd Date: 2017-08-24
  • Publish Date: 2017-11-28
  • Objectives The aim of this study was to develop a clinical risk model that is predictive of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients hospitalized with acute heart failure (AHF). Methods 2486 patients who were 60 years and older from intensive care units of Cardiology Department in the hospital were analyzed. Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality were obtained by binary logistic regression and then used to establish the risk prediction score system (RPSS). The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic and C-statistic test were adopted to assess the performance of RPSS and to compare with previous get with the guidelines–heart failure (GWTG-HF). Results By binary logistic regression analysis, heart rate (OR: 1.043, 95% CI: 1.030–1.057, P P P P P vs. 0.818, P = 0.016). Conclusions Our risk prediction model, RPSS, provided a good prediction for in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with AHF.
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