BACKGROUND Early identification of patients at risk of congestive heart failure (HF) may alter their poor prognosis. The aim was therefore to test whether simple electrocardiographic variables, the P-wave and PR-interval, could predict incident HF.
METHODS The PIVUS (Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors) study (1016 individuals all aged 70 years, 50% women) was used to identify predictors of HF. Subjects with prevalent HF, QRS duration ≥ 130 ms, atrial tachyarrhythmias, implanted pacemaker/defibrillator, second- and third-degree atrioventricular block or delta waves at baseline were excluded. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to relate the PR interval, P-wave duration (Pdur) and amplitude (Pamp), measured in lead V1, to incident HF. Adjustment was performed for gender, RR-interval, beta-blocking agents, systolic blood pressure, body mass index and smoking.
RESULTS Out of 836 subjects at risk, 107 subjects were diagnosed with HF during a follow-up of 15 years. In the multivariate analysis, there was a strong U-shaped correlation between Pdur in lead V1 and incident HF (P = 0.0001) which was significant for a Pdur < 60 ms HR = 2.75; 95% CI: 1.87-4.06, at Pdur 40 ms but not for prolonged Pdur. There was no significant relationship between incident HF and the PR-interval or the Pamp. A Pdur < 60 ms improved discrimination by 3.7% when added to the traditional risk factors including sex, RR-interval, beta-blocking agents, systolic blood pressure, BMI and smoking (P = 0.048).
CONCLUSIONS A short Pdur, an easily measured parameter on the ECG, may potentially be a useful marker of future HF, enabling its early detection and prevention, thus improving outcomes.
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